{"time":1631240952682,"blocks":[{"type":"quote","data":{"text":"写在前｜"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"为了能更进一步支持第9章 买卖比煎蛋容易（it is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg），本章我就截取以下3个精华帮助自己进行知识的梳理：","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"✨精华1","level":2}},{"type":"quote","data":{"text":"We create a cohort that is composed exclusively of incompetent managers.（我们创造出的一大群人，完全由能力差的经理人组成。）"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【启示】宁为鸡首，不为牛后。是要当鸡？还是要当牛呢？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"不！","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"好好的人不当，为什么去当牲畜呢。还有人会笑着说，当神阿...","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"许多人为了争取排名，往死里打就是要争个出头。但这个排名有意义吗？这个排名只有在哪儿被定义才有意义呢？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"人生是自己的，没有所谓的非此即彼二分。于所在环境，就是一个适应能力提升的成长问题而已。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"delimiter","data":{}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"✨精华2","level":2}},{"type":"quote","data":{"text":"people believe that they can figure out the properties of the distribution from the sample they are witnessing.（人相信他们能从所见到的样本，研判分布的特质）"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【启示】","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"如果说，人是生来就想融入环境，力求适应，那么解释能力、幻想能力，绝对是和环境融合以求自洽的用意。然而这不带表真相就是如此。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"人类对于虚构幻想的沟通能力，不但让我们创造出各种社会结构，也帮助彼此得以预测行为，因此培养出更高层次的价值观感互动。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"✨精华3","level":2}},{"type":"quote","data":{"text":"...the user of these products could be sincere, without it meaning that he was cured by the illusory treatment. （纵使为产品做见证的人可能满脸真诚，却不表示他真的是被虚幻的治疗方法治好的）"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【启示】","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"让自己健康一点，最好能自然老死、自然天年。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"在生物医药领域更有我们许多不了解的机制，即便已经有翘楚做非常严谨的实验，也通过许多假设检验，拿有效样本做盲测、人体实验多次，然而也不能把握用到的分布工具靠不靠谱啊！","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"有专家背书、有成功案例站台，也只是增加信心的安慰用途。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"因此，读了这一段我最大的启示就是要珍重健康！想到当自己要跟生命搏斗时，还要面对被尝试用药也不确定的不安，真是太悲惨了。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"delimiter","data":{}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"沉淀：总是存在有你不知道的分布","level":2}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"01","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"读了第九章，泡在概率论与推论谬误过程反复思考许多，就是越来越感到塔勒布在上一章有说过，他致力避开吵闹的环境，因为无法驾驭自己情绪波动。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"原来就是因为知道太多，反而生活小心翼翼的谨慎更圈住自我...圈阿圈想躲了，就转身面向大海了。该逃避吗？塔勒布会喝斥：逃避是天性，那是弱者。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"02","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"常听到\"贫穷限制了想象力\"，今天读了塔勒布对幸存者偏误的深入举例与阐述，让自己感知看事情要懂得别限制在某个样本范畴。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"正如今天下午也研读一本记录书：袁凌｜《寂静的孩子》，是一本关于耗时四年，踏入偏远地方了解孩子生存和心灵写真的观察记录。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"先看一下这段：","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"quote","data":{"text":"\"...后来，矿工的事迹被报导，小侄女去参加了一期芒果台的\"变形计\"节目，和一个小男孩互换，到大城市一个富裕家庭生活了一周。回来之后，她心理严重受创，很久恢复不过来。"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"这一段给自己莫大的震撼。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"心理一直在想，如果那位小女孩没有比较，没有开过眼界，会不会自得其乐继续过得好一点？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"那位小男孩充其量只是交换那一个礼拜手游玩具没得充电，想必交换得那一个礼拜也是被当王子供奉的不敢怠慢，说什么什么心理崩溃的？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"所以女孩和男孩认知所见、未来生命旅途之路的概率分布是不一样的。而男孩因为生活富裕，会有相对能量去面对；女孩儿呢？只落得\"贫穷限制了想象\"的无助绝望的无声语言...","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"03","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"硬要把谁的套用在谁的身上解释，或者把谁的概率分布精英套用在另一个分布生活，有意义吗？现实生活中还会有更不一样的分布。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"见到的验证只是一种分布的解释，但现实生活中充满多样属性的存在，各自都有所在的分布；有些具体、有些抽象，我们就是对这世界所知甚少。  ","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"例如菲律宾有更凄惨的人生，不只出生还就是住在坟墓，还争相恐后争去去卖肾。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"所以，与其说\"贫穷限制了想象\"，我想，在健康人生的有限年岁，尽量多出去走走、行路看看世界。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"别让\"平淡狭隘了感知\"，因为没有去做的空盼，反而让青春误了流年。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"delimiter","data":{}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【小记】","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"今日研读就把Liuda老师给的几个小题目做阅读探照灯，支持自己以线索去找答案的轻阅读，底下做点读书笔记整理，跟着定投人生漫漫七年未来不断完善之途：","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"1、为什么能力欠佳的经理人中，仍然有少数人的绩效记录很好","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【可能线索】波动性。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"2、原始样本量在其中发挥什么作用？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【可能线索】分布属性。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"3、想想为什么人们沉迷于数据挖掘技术？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"【可能思考】可以多做解释。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"4、对你的启发是？印象深刻的一句话是？","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"如上。锻炼反脆弱。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"本章最让自己有印象的一句话：\"I Have No Conclusion（没有结论的结论）\"。","alignment":"left"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"塔勒布就是不给自己结论，就是持续往前走就是...","alignment":"left"}}],"version":"2.19.1"}